Figure's IPO: What It Signals for Blockchain-Enabled Finance in the Next Decade
This successful IPO isn’t just a milestone for one firm. It represents a turning point for blockchain, tokenization, “crypto-adjacent” fintechs, and how they're viewed by markets & regulators.
Figure Technology Solutions (ticker FIGR) is now a public company.
This is a special newsletter edition (more comprehensive) with key metrics, major signals, and what to watch in the next year as Figure’s story develops — and market impact for the broader ecosystem.
Lots to unpack, so let’s get started!
William M. (Founder, Director @FinTechtris)
Reading time: ~8 minutes
🔔 Not a Subscriber to the ‘FinTech Feed’? — sign up today (it’s free)
We curate deep dives into the news, trends, drivers of industry growth, and go-to-market frameworks (like this one) shaping the industry’s future.
Join 1,000+ founders, operators, industry professionals building next gen FinTech! Subscribe Now | Share This Newsletter | Browse Archives
What Happened: Figure’s IPO in Key Facts
Figure Technology Solutions, co-founded by Mike Cagney (ex-SoFi), sells home equity lines of credit (HELOC), cash-out refinance, crypto-backed loans, and other consumer/institutional lending services using its Provenance blockchain infrastructure.
Here’s what the IPO delivered:
Capital raised: ~$787.5M from the sale of ~31.5M shares;
Valuation at debut: ~$7.6B after share price surged in Nasdaq debut.
First-day trading gains: Shares closed at ~$31.11, up ~24.4% over IPO price;
Financials leading into IPO: Revenue in the first half of 2025 was ~$191M (a ~22.4% increase year-over-year);
Operational adoption / partnerships: Over 160 partners in its loan origination and secondary market ecosystem;
These metrics combine to show that Figure is not just a speculative narrative.
There’s baseline revenue, profitability, and uptake in the marketplace, AND investor appetite.
Why Figure’s IPO Matters: Beyond One Company
The wider implications of this IPO extend into regulatory, investment, competitive, and technological dimensions.
Below we explore what Figure’s public debut signals.
1. Validation of Blockchain + Real Lending
One of the most powerful messages sent by Figure’s IPO is that blockchain rails, asset tokenization, and transparent protocols can be combined with traditional lending products (like HELOCs, refinance loans, etc.) in a way that markets reward.
It reduces some of the “crypto hype” risk: this is not just tokens or yield farms or DeFi with no cashflow.
This credibility may help lower the hurdle for other fintechs or blockchain startup-lenders to raise capital, to structure operations, and to plan for exits or public listings.
2. Regulatory and Disclosure Pressures
A public company is under far more scrutiny (e.g. financial, auditing, disclosure, governance) than private startups.
Figure going public means regulators, market watchers, and investors will observe how it manages risk, compliance, tokenization accounting, and its blockchain infrastructure.
If Figure does well, its standards may become benchmarks. If it stumbles, it could reinforce skepticism among investors toward “blockchain fintech” models.
3. IPO Market Reawakening & Investor Appetite for Crypto-Adjacent
Figure’s IPO comes at a moment where investor demand for IPOs is reviving.
In the past month, the U.S. IPO market raised several billion dollars, with multiple large-scale fintech / crypto-adjacent offerings: Figure and Klarna among them.
Investors appear ready to reward firms that offer strong governance, real revenue growth, and a path to sustainable margins—not just speculative upside.
4. Tokenization and Real-World Asset (RWA) Finance Getting Traction
Figure claims a leading share in tokenization of private credit / real-world assets.
Tokenization of loans, mortgages, home equity, refinancing, etc., is an important trend in the convergence of blockchain & traditional finance.
Figure’s Provenance blockchain architecture is central to that.
Success here could accelerate adoption of similar models: secondary markets for tokenized assets, better liquidity, more efficient capital flows, and perhaps new financing instruments.
What to Watch in the Next 2 Quarters: Risks, Opportunities, Forecasts
Given everything we now know, what should fintech, crypto, investors, and regulatory watchers expect between now and early 2026?
Here are areas that will be particularly important to monitor.
A. Figure’s Post-IPO Performance and Milestones
Quarterly earnings & margin experience: The market will observe if Figure can sustain profitability and grow margins. Investors will want to see revenue growth, low default rates, good underwriting, and cost discipline even as it scales.
Execution in tokenization & secondary markets: How successful will the tokenization efforts be? Will Figure succeed in creating vibrant liquidity, good legal/risk frameworks, and attracting institutional capital for these assets?
Regulatory overhang & compliance: How will authorities respond to Figure’s structure? Will there be new rules or clarifications for tokenized loans, blockchain origination, smart contract governance?
Competition response: Traditional banks and mortgage providers may accelerate investments or partnerships to mimic parts of Figure’s model. Other fintechs might try to replicate or challenge Figure in adjacent products.
Macroeconomic and interest rate environment: Lending, especially home equity, is sensitive to rates, housing markets, inflation, and regulatory policy. If rates rise sharply, or if housing markets take a downturn, that could stress Figure’s loan portfolios or growth.
B. Broader Ecosystem Impacts
More IPOs from crypto/fintech firms: If Figure’s IPO remains viewed positively, we may see more companies in the sector decide that public markets are accessible. Especially those with hybrid models (blockchain + real assets) and track records of revenue or profitability.
Valuation benchmarks reset: Figure’s valuation (~$7.6B at IPO) will act as a benchmark for what the market will pay for blockchain fintechs with credible business models. This might lift valuations for some, but could also create pressure for peers to show comparable metrics.
Innovation in product design & risk management: Tokenization, smart contracts, digital asset collateral, on-chain settlement — all these will see more experimentation. We may also see new products around blended credit + crypto exposure, or innovations to address risks (e.g. automated credit risk on blockchain, hybrid DeFi-CeFi models).
Regulation & policy developments: Lawmakers, securities regulators, banking regulators are likely to pay more attention. We may see proposals or rules on tokenization, real-world asset securities issued on blockchain, what counts as securities or lending under crypto law, etc.
Institutional investment flows: Institutional investors — asset managers, private credit funds, banks — may increase allocations toward blockchain-enabled credit / tokenization funds, if Figure’s model is successful.
C. Risks & Potential Pitfalls
Some things to keep an eye on:
Regulatory missteps or legal challenges, especially around how tokenization is classified (debt vs security vs derivative), or how consumer loan protections apply.
Technology or execution risks, including smart contract vulnerabilities, blockchain performance or security issues, or challenges in integrating traditional finance pipelines with new rails.
Macro downswings, especially in housing markets, rising interest rates, inflation, or consumer credit stress. These could stress loan defaults or reduce growth.
Investor expectations may be high. If Figure’s future results don’t match market expectations (high margins, strong growth), the stock could suffer.
Competitive pressure and capital costs: financing tokenized assets, underwriting, scaling operations with sufficient capital may prove expensive.
What This Means for Blockchain & Crypto-Adjacent Companies
For companies building in or around blockchain, crypto, real-world assets, DeFi hybrid models, this IPO and market response send several messages that may help shape strategy.
Blend of real assets + blockchain wins, but you need financial discipline.
Demonstrating recurring revenue, managing risk, showing profitability or a credible path to it, and integrating regulatory compliance (KYC, consumer protections, disclosures) are likely to become minimum expectations.Tokenization is not a side project—it’s approaching core business models for those fintechs that can originate or service loans, mortgages, or other credit. Those that have built tokenization into their infrastructure (e.g. Figure with Provenance) will likely be advantaged.
Regulators will follow the money. Where capital flows go, regulators and policy makers will take notice. Companies should anticipate (and budget for) more regulatory compliance, audits, legal scrutiny, possibly new securities-law implications.
Investor patience but also expectations. As these offerings go public, investor patience is still required. Companies preparing IPOs or scaling toward public or quasi-public performance should be ready to deliver steady financial performance, risk controls, and transparency.
Partnerships between traditional finance and blockchain fintech will accelerate. Banks, mortgage providers, fintech lenders may seek technology partners, joint ventures, or outright adoption of blockchain rails to compete. And some regulatory bodies might support such transitions if systemic risks are addressed.
Forecast: What Could Unfold by 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, there are a few potential paths for how Figure’s journey—and by extension, the broader blockchain-fintech landscape—might play out.
In the most optimistic case, Figure posts 2-3 strong quarters with revenue growing 30–50% year-over-year while margins stay healthy.
Its tokenization business begins contributing meaningfully, and secondary markets for tokenized assets show early signs of real liquidity.
At the same time, other fintech or crypto-adjacent firms, perhaps in BNPL or real estate finance, follow Figure’s lead by going public.
Regulatory clarity improves, institutional capital flows rise, and valuations across blockchain fintechs surge.
A more baseline scenario would see Figure continue growing but encounter some headwinds.
Revenue might increase steadily, but margins could come under pressure.
Tokenization could remain more niche than transformative, and regulatory developments may be a mix of progress and new costs.
Some competitors may attempt IPOs with mixed results, and while investor enthusiasm cools somewhat, the market still recognizes the structural potential of blockchain finance.
This environment would encourage discipline and help define clearer templates for what a “good” blockchain-fintech public company looks like.
The pessimistic case would involve Figure struggling to maintain momentum.
Losses could re-emerge, underwriting might falter, and loan defaults could climb.
Regulatory authorities could become more aggressive, perhaps challenging how tokenized loans are classified or how consumer protections are handled.
Investor sentiment might sour, leading to a pullback in crypto-adjacent IPOs, fewer successful listings, and a recalibration of valuations across the sector.
In this scenario, capital would become more expensive, consolidation could accelerate, and tokenization innovation would likely slow until conditions stabilize.
Being Mindful of Policy & Regulation Changes
Given the novelty and complexity of blockchain-based lending and tokenized assets, and now with Figure being a public company to watch, regulatory developments will likely occupy a central role in the next nine months:
Securities law clarifications around what tokenized debt or credit instruments are: Are they securities? How must they be registered or disclosed?
Consumer lending regulation as applied to blockchain origination, smart contract-enabled servicing, defaults, disclosures.
Accounting and tax treatments for tokenized assets: How to recognize revenue, risk, provisioning, collateral enforcement.
Audit, governance, and risk oversight around smart contracts, blockchain security, counterparty risk, platform risk.
Stablecoins, digital asset collateral rules: since Figure also operates in “crypto-adjacent” domains, digital asset collateral or digital stablecoins (if used) will attract scrutiny.
Regulators may also adjust frameworks for IPOs and public reporting for firms using blockchain rails in their operations, to ensure transparency.
Companies will need legal, accounting, and tech infrastructures ready for that scrutiny.
Implications for Founders, Investors & Operators
For those building or investing in blockchain fintech, Figure’s IPO provides both inspiration and a warning label.
Here are some strategic takeaways:
If you’re a founder, building revenue and margin early matters. Integrating tokenization, blockchain operations, but also showing product-market fit in real lending markets, partnering with institutions, ensuring compliance. These are no longer optional if you want the public market’s attention.
If you’re an investor (VC, private equity, institutional), this IPO offers a new comparison: what metrics are being rewarded, what multiples, what risk premiums are being assigned. This may change how you underwrite models, assess exit timing, or advise portfolio companies on structuring.
For operators / tech teams, the demands are increasing: scalable, secure blockchain systems, smart contract risk audits, token standards, integrating with legacy systems, collateral management, regulatory compliance, disclosure, etc. Being first is good — being stable and transparent is likely more valuable.
For competitors / incumbents (traditional banks, mortgage firms, credit unions): There may be opportunities to partner, acquire, or license technology from blockchain fintechs. But you’ll need to manage risk carefully and adapt operations and compliance.
Montoring the Macro Environment for Head Winds
To round out this picture, here are pitfalls that could derail or limit the broader positive narrative:
Housing market turn: Since many of Figure’s products are tied to housing (HELOC, refinance, etc.), any major drop in housing prices or rise in interest rates will stress business significantly.
Credit losses / underwriting risks: Even with strong performance so far, scale tends to bring tougher credit quality challenges. The hybrid model (on-chain and off-chain) may obscure certain risks until late.
Regulatory surprises: New laws or enforcement actions, especially in securities, lending, consumer protection. Legal classification of tokenization, or requirement that some tokenized loans be treated under securities law, could impose large costs or limit business models.
Liquidity issues in tokenized secondary markets: It may be hard to achieve meaningful liquidity on tokenized real-world assets. Without that, tokenization becomes more marketing than functional.
Investor expectations & market corrections: If valuation multiples compress, or if public markets shift away from growth-at-all-cost models, FIGR and similar companies might see stock price volatility.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment Where Execution Counts
Figure’s IPO is more than just a funding event.
It is a signal that the marketplace—investors, regulators, counterparties—is increasingly willing to give blockchain-enabled financial companies a chance, if they deliver a blend of real financials, credible products, compliance, and technological execution.
Over the next nine months, we’ll see whether this moment marks the beginning of a wave: of blockchain lenders, tokenized real asset platforms, crypto-fintech IPOs, and perhaps a deeper reworking of how loans and credits are originated, securitized, traded.
Or whether it becomes a cautionary tale of valuation peak, regulatory friction, or competitive pressures.
For additional context, please check out our site article from earlier in the week — “Figure’s Blockbuster IPO: What It Means for Blockchain, Lending & Fintech.”
🤔 Why Sign Up to FinTech Feed?
Every edition delivers insights that keep you informed — whether you're building, investing, or working in financial services. We're building the definitive forum for founders, operators, and product teams creating the next generation of financial services.
If you’re ready to stay ahead of the curve, subscribe today to join our community for a weekly dosage of industry updates/insights (in 5-10 min reads). [If you’re already part of our community, thanks for your continued support!]
🙏 Thanks for the read! Here’s how to partner with us —>
Check out our full content archive (7+ years):
📚 Visit FinTechtris’ content library of Sector Spotlights, Deep Dives, and more!
🧐 Follow us on LinkedIn for weekly insights + updates, and what we’re following;
Partnership Opportunity (New Content or Referral Program)?
We can host your company’s content with (i) sponsored articles (e.g. reports, interviews, key announcements), (ii) embedding referral links for lead generation, and/or (iii) expanding visibility/branding for your upcoming event.
🤝 Submit our CONTENT PARTNER / REFERRAL PARTNER form (less than a min) and let’s get started today!
1:1 insights available for founders, operators, product/exec teams —>
📈 Interested in Go-to-Market (GTM) action plans (e.g. expand to the US), bank/vendor research & reviews, solution design playbooks, program management toolkits, and/or targeted outbound (to banks, fintechs)?
Please fill out our SURVEY (it takes 1-2 min) today — we’ll respond within 24 hrs.